Antes das 19 horas e das primeiras sondagens à boca da urna, aqui ficam algumas das minhas razões para ser opositor ao actual esquema representativo parlamentar, ao método de eleição via círculos eleitorais e conversão de votos em mandatos via método de Hondt.

Primeiro ponto, curto e grosso: num país não regionalizado não faz qualquer sentido a existência de círculos eleitorais. Não se vota pela lista do partido para o nosso círculo, vota-se no partido e no seu programa eleitoral nacional.

Por consequência, o método de Hondt, embora válido no sentido de facilitar o cálculo dos “restos” que o método da Quota de Hare introduz e que D’Hondt resolve integrando método divisor, não promove real representatividade num círculo nacional único e remove mandatos a partidos de menor dimensão que obtiveram votos suficientes para serem representados no parlamento. Este é, ainda assim, o ponto em que assumo maior flexibilidade na minha discordância pelo simples facto de que todos os métodos possíveis são também passíveis de críticas válidas quanto à real representatividade que apresentam.

Por fim, a maior das minhas insistências: a abstenção tem que ter impacto no parlamento. Ignorar o fenómeno crescente da abstenção é ignorar a descrença dos povos na democracia representativa.

Peguei nos números de 2011, números globais retirados de fonte governamental, aqui.

Estavam inscritos 9624133 eleitores. Votaram 5588594, ou seja, 58,07%.
Há 230 mandatos/lugares no parlamento.
As coisas ficaram organizadas da seguinte forma:

Partido Votantes Mandatos % no parlamento
PPD/PSD 2159742 108 46,96%
PS 1568168 74 32,17%
CDS-PP 653987 24 10,43%
PCP-PEV 441852 16 6,96%
BE 288973 8 3,48%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 0 0,00%
PAN 57849 0 0,00%
MPT 22690 0 0,00%
MEP 21936 0 0,00%
PNR 17742 0 0,00%
PTP 16811 0 0,00%
PPM 15081 0 0,00%
PND 11776 0 0,00%
PPV 8205 0 0,00%
POUS 4604 0 0,00%
PDA 4532 0 0,00%
P.H. 3590 0 0,00%
Brancos 148378 0 0,00%
Nulos 79995 0 0,00%
Total de Mandatos 230

Atentem na percentagem de deputados no parlamento que cada partido obteve.

Agora atentem na discrepância relativa à real percentagem de votos que cada partido obteve tendo em conta o total de votos depositados em urna:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65%
PS 1568168 28,06%
CDS-PP 653987 11,70%
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91%
BE 288973 5,17%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12%
PAN 57849 1,04%
MPT 22690 0,41%
MEP 21936 0,39%
PNR 17742 0,32%
PTP 16811 0,30%
PPM 15081 0,27%
PND 11776 0,21%
PPV 8205 0,15%
POUS 4604 0,08%
PDA 4532 0,08%
P.H. 3590 0,06%
Brancos 148378 2,66%
Nulos 79995 1,43%

 

O cálculo é básico e permite que se observe de forma simples a potenciação da representação dos partidos com maior incidência de votos em detrimento dos partidos que obtiveram um resultado global que lhes deveria permitir uma voz, ainda que mínima, no parlamento.

E se abstenção tiver efeitos directos no número de mandatos atribuídos? Porque não? Porque não usar a abstenção como arma efectiva contra o sistema político vigente? Porque não uma regra simples de atribuição de lugares parlamentares de acordo com o número real de votantes? Vamos usar 2011 como exemplo.

230 mandatos para 9624133 eleitores? Só 58,07% dos eleitores participaram na votação? Isso representa 134 mandatos. Regra de 3 simples.

Obviamente que isto implica uma limpeza coerente e recorrente dos cadernos eleitorais, mas não é isso que qualquer sistema democrático deveria garantir de qualquer forma?

Então e se acabarmos com os círculos eleitorais e se for a votos uma lista nacional, única, encabeçada pelo candidato a primeiro ministro? E se a conversão de votos em mandatos for feita de forma directa e não através do método de Hondt? E se os brancos e nulos, votos de protesto por natureza, forem representados na mesma percentagem por lugares vazios no parlamento?

Como teriam ficado os tais 134 lugares de 2011 atribuídos mediante participação popular? Assim:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes Mandatos
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65% 52
PS 1568168 28,06% 37
CDS-PP 653987 11,70% 16
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91% 11
BE 288973 5,17% 7
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12% 1
PAN 57849 1,04% 1
MPT 22690 0,41% 1
MEP 21936 0,39% 1
PNR 17742 0,32% 0
PTP 16811 0,30% 0
PPM 15081 0,27% 0
PND 11776 0,21% 0
PPV 8205 0,15% 0
POUS 4604 0,08% 0
PDA 4532 0,08% 0
P.H. 3590 0,06% 0
Brancos 148378 2,66% 4
Nulos 79995 1,43% 2
Total de Mandatos 134

E o que podemos retirar daqui?

  • A coligação entre PSD e CDS-PP continua maioritária com os seus 68 mandatos para os 134 lugares, não se desvirtuando em nada a vontade popular de 2011 de ter a direita em maioria no parlamento.
  • Quatro novos partidos teriam um representante no parlamento. Quatro novas vozes, quatro novas opiniões com maior visibilidade.
  • Maior abertura e incentivo do sistema democrático à representação da vontade popular legitimada pelo voto em partidos de menor expressão mas ainda assim suficiente para ser ouvida.
  • Representação da abstenção, votos brancos e votos nulos com efeitos práticos.

Seria também interessante perceber que o sistema só seria legítimo se 50% dos eleitores inscritos fosse efectivamente depositar o voto na urna. Uma percentagem inferior representa uma descrença no sistema representativo actual e deverá ser suficiente para que o mesmo seja analisado e ajustado de forma a que o povo sinta que um voto é um elemento útil na construção democrática do seu país.


Comments ( 281 )

  1. Replyquestlov
    Posso vos pedir um e-mail de contacto?
  2. ReplyAuthorPaulo Costa
    Bom dia e desculpe o atraso na resposta. Isto tem estado algo parado... No menu lateral tem um link no final da barra com o formulário para enviar qualquer dúvida ou questão por email.
  3. Replycheap PoE currency buy
    Do not push me.
  4. ReplyScoRobE
    Lasix Sales Acheter Cialis 20mg Ligne cialis online Viagra Und Co Kaufen Propecia Utilidad Clomid Order
  5. Replyfranksini
    Hello, my name is Frank Sinister! I`m a professional writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion for a long time and now I cannot imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even India. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Sinister, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can save their time! Academic Writer - Sinister - Students Mistakes Confederation
  6. ReplyPoE buy Items
    I thought I should give it a shot!
  7. ReplyMarionoxifs
    The Easiest Way to Write an Essay vwwbqjfwzpyi - 73292070
  8. ReplyMarionoxifs
  9. ReplyMarionoxifs
    Buying Papers Online College xnaurpzaxzqs - 51258859
  10. ReplyMarionoxifs
  11. Replyricharddii
    Hello guys, my name is Richard Dicks! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion for a long time and now I cannot imagine my life without it. Most of my books were sold throughout Canada, USA, China and even India. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their nerves. People ask me "Sir, Richard Dicks, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can save their time! Academic Writer - Richard Dicks - UniversiteAdventisteHaiti Band
  12. Replypoe buy currency
    Proud of you .
  13. ReplyBrendalew
    dieta para perder peso forma natural mwsuxfioydqq - 91011667
  14. ReplyBrendalew
    Dieta di Anna ifyhqjtvywkx - 39914817
  15. ReplyBrendalew
    #Alimentazione per bambini di un anno jxriovyknplr - 13724452
  16. ReplyBrendalew
  17. Replypoe items
    If he shows up, we stick with him.
  18. ReplyBrendalew
  19. ReplyBrendalew
    #Alimentazione bambino 1 anno qthibnguachq - 17118694
  20. ReplyYvonneheaby
    dieta kefir 2 uova tsxaepvprvgs - 63220071
  21. ReplyYvonneheaby
    dieta per un giorno alla settimana aoeereuchwoz - 12132244
  22. ReplyWilmaDap
  23. ReplyWilmaDap
  24. Replyricharpiip
    Hey guys, my name is Richard Picks! I`m a professional writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, China and even India. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Richard Picks, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Richard Picks - Amanda White Writes Company
  25. Replyricharpiip
    Hey guys, my name is Richard Picks! I`m a professional writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, China and even India. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Richard Picks, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Richard Picks - Amanda White Writes Company
  26. Replyricharpiip
    Hello guys, my name is Richard Picks! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, China and even Australia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Sir, Richard, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Richard Picks - ARFF K9 Academy Corp
  27. Replycheapest Mu Legend Zen for sale at u4gm.com
    You're so cute.
  28. ReplyPoE orbs
    Now you tell me she's not a knock-out!
  29. ReplyMariodic
    Hellow All I like pizza! :) pizza
  30. Replyseanpaull
    Hey, I am Sean a professional in report writing. I love solving people’s problems and make them happy. That is what I have been doing for decades now. I have been writing since I was 12 years old and never knew it would turn out to be a full-time career. I have also been able to handle several assignments that involves writing. And I worked in three organizations as a volunteer to assist people.My passion has always been to help people succeed. And I go the extra mile to make that happen. I enjoy writing Thesis and have helped people from countries like Australia. I work with a service provider whose mission is to provide quality works and make people happy. In fact, many students come to me for help on a daily basis because they know I always deliver. And I will continue to provide nothing but quality to build trust like I have been doing for the past few years. Academic writer - Sean Paul - http://columbusdiscountrecords.com/ - Columbus Discount Records Company
  31. Replyseanpaull
    Hi guys, I am Sean a professional in content writing. I love solving people’s problems and make them happy. That is what I have been doing for many years now. I have been writing since I was 12 years old and never knew it would turn out to be a full-time career. I have also been able to manage several assignments that involves writing. And I worked in three organizations as a volunteer to assist people.My interest has always been to help people succeed. And I go the extra mile to make that happen. I enjoy writing Thesis and have helped people from countries like UK. I work with a company whose mission is to provide quality works and make people happy. In fact, many students come to me for professional help on a daily basis because they know I always deliver. And I will continue to provide nothing but the best to build trust like I have been doing for the past few years. Academic writer - Sean - http://columbusdiscountrecords.com/ - Columbus Discount Records Band
  32. ReplygarneuDuro
    ???? ???????? ?????? ?? ???? ? ???????? ??????????? ?????????? ?? ???????????? ??? ????. --- ???????? ?????. fifa 15 ??????? ??????? pc ?????????, download fifa 15 crack ? ???? fifa fifa 15 ??????? ??????? ????????? ?????? 2016
  33. ReplyLatonyaaluts
    This message is posted here using XRumer + XEvil 4.0 XEvil 4.0 is a revolutionary application that can solve any anti-bot protection. Captcha Solution Google (ReCaptcha-1, ReCaptcha-2), Facebook, BING, Hotmail, Yahoo, Yandex, VKontakte, Captcha Com - and over 8400 other types! You read this - it means it works! ;) Details on the official website of XEvil, there is a free demo version. Check YouTube video "XEvil ReCaptcha2"
  34. ReplyLatonyaaluts
    This message is posted here using XRumer + XEvil 4.0 XEvil 4.0 is a revolutionary application that can break any anti-bot CAPTCHA's. Captcha Bypass Google (ReCaptcha-1, ReCaptcha-2), Facebook, BING, Hotmail, Yahoo, Yandex, VKontakte, Captcha Com - and over 8400 other types! You read this - it means it works! ;) Details on the official website of XEvil, there is a free demo version. Check YouTube video "XEvil ReCaptcha2"
  35. ReplygarneuDuro
    ?????????????!! ????? ?????? ?????????? ?????!!!! --- ? ????? ?? ? ???? ??????????. ??????? fifa 15 ?? pc ??? origin, fifa 15 cracks 3dm ??????? ??????? ? fifa 15 demo ??????? fifa 15 ?? ????????? ???????
  36. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  37. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  38. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  39. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  40. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  41. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  42. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  43. Replymarkormann
    Hey guys, my name is Mark! I`m an academic writer and I`m going to change your lifes on?e and for all Writing has been my passion since early years and now I can`t imagine my life without it. Most of my works were sold throughout Canada, USA, Old England and even Russia. Also I`m working with services that help people to save their time. People ask me "Hey, Mark, I need your professional help" and I always accept the request, `cause I know, that only I can solve all their problems! Professional Academic Writer - Mark - http://eutsa.org/ - Eutsa Company
  44. Replymarkormann
    I’m an expert writer who loves to bring smiles to people's face. Writing is what I do for a living and I am so passionate about this. I have worked with several associations whose mission is to help people solve writing problems. I love traveling and have visited several countries in the past few years. I’m happy to have written several books that have contributed positively to the lives of many. My works are available in several parts of the world. And I’m currently working with service providers that help people save time. Being a part of this team has open more opportunities for me to excel as a writer. I have worked with different people and met many clients as a writer. I can handle any kind of writing and provide nothing but the best. People come to me all the time to ask if I can solve their assignment problems and I accept. I find pleasure in helping them to solve their problems as a writer. Academic Writer – Mark - http://www.heartbeatsmovement.com/ - Heartbeats Movement Corps
  45. Replyvardenafil generika 10mg
    The methods described in this post regarding to increase traffic at you own webpage are truly pleasant, thanks for such nice piece of writing.
  46. ReplyKennethsleva
    ????? ???? ??????? ? ???? ? ?? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ????????? ?? 2-3 ????! ? ????? ???????? ? ??? ???????? ???????? ????????: 14 ???????? ??????????? ??????, ?????????? ??????? ? ????? ???????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ?? 2-? ????? ? 3 ???? ??????????? ?????????? ?????? ??? ????????? ?????????? ???? ?????? ?? 15-20 ?????? ????: https://eroctive2.blogspot.ru/
  47. ReplyAddVese
    Viagra Online Package tadalista vs cialis Priligy Dapoxetine Review
  48. ReplyUSA drugstore
    generic online overnight shipping http://drugstore-usa.science buy thailand.