Antes das 19 horas e das primeiras sondagens à boca da urna, aqui ficam algumas das minhas razões para ser opositor ao actual esquema representativo parlamentar, ao método de eleição via círculos eleitorais e conversão de votos em mandatos via método de Hondt.

Primeiro ponto, curto e grosso: num país não regionalizado não faz qualquer sentido a existência de círculos eleitorais. Não se vota pela lista do partido para o nosso círculo, vota-se no partido e no seu programa eleitoral nacional.

Por consequência, o método de Hondt, embora válido no sentido de facilitar o cálculo dos “restos” que o método da Quota de Hare introduz e que D’Hondt resolve integrando método divisor, não promove real representatividade num círculo nacional único e remove mandatos a partidos de menor dimensão que obtiveram votos suficientes para serem representados no parlamento. Este é, ainda assim, o ponto em que assumo maior flexibilidade na minha discordância pelo simples facto de que todos os métodos possíveis são também passíveis de críticas válidas quanto à real representatividade que apresentam.

Por fim, a maior das minhas insistências: a abstenção tem que ter impacto no parlamento. Ignorar o fenómeno crescente da abstenção é ignorar a descrença dos povos na democracia representativa.

Peguei nos números de 2011, números globais retirados de fonte governamental, aqui.

Estavam inscritos 9624133 eleitores. Votaram 5588594, ou seja, 58,07%.
Há 230 mandatos/lugares no parlamento.
As coisas ficaram organizadas da seguinte forma:

Partido Votantes Mandatos % no parlamento
PPD/PSD 2159742 108 46,96%
PS 1568168 74 32,17%
CDS-PP 653987 24 10,43%
PCP-PEV 441852 16 6,96%
BE 288973 8 3,48%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 0 0,00%
PAN 57849 0 0,00%
MPT 22690 0 0,00%
MEP 21936 0 0,00%
PNR 17742 0 0,00%
PTP 16811 0 0,00%
PPM 15081 0 0,00%
PND 11776 0 0,00%
PPV 8205 0 0,00%
POUS 4604 0 0,00%
PDA 4532 0 0,00%
P.H. 3590 0 0,00%
Brancos 148378 0 0,00%
Nulos 79995 0 0,00%
Total de Mandatos 230

Atentem na percentagem de deputados no parlamento que cada partido obteve.

Agora atentem na discrepância relativa à real percentagem de votos que cada partido obteve tendo em conta o total de votos depositados em urna:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65%
PS 1568168 28,06%
CDS-PP 653987 11,70%
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91%
BE 288973 5,17%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12%
PAN 57849 1,04%
MPT 22690 0,41%
MEP 21936 0,39%
PNR 17742 0,32%
PTP 16811 0,30%
PPM 15081 0,27%
PND 11776 0,21%
PPV 8205 0,15%
POUS 4604 0,08%
PDA 4532 0,08%
P.H. 3590 0,06%
Brancos 148378 2,66%
Nulos 79995 1,43%

 

O cálculo é básico e permite que se observe de forma simples a potenciação da representação dos partidos com maior incidência de votos em detrimento dos partidos que obtiveram um resultado global que lhes deveria permitir uma voz, ainda que mínima, no parlamento.

E se abstenção tiver efeitos directos no número de mandatos atribuídos? Porque não? Porque não usar a abstenção como arma efectiva contra o sistema político vigente? Porque não uma regra simples de atribuição de lugares parlamentares de acordo com o número real de votantes? Vamos usar 2011 como exemplo.

230 mandatos para 9624133 eleitores? Só 58,07% dos eleitores participaram na votação? Isso representa 134 mandatos. Regra de 3 simples.

Obviamente que isto implica uma limpeza coerente e recorrente dos cadernos eleitorais, mas não é isso que qualquer sistema democrático deveria garantir de qualquer forma?

Então e se acabarmos com os círculos eleitorais e se for a votos uma lista nacional, única, encabeçada pelo candidato a primeiro ministro? E se a conversão de votos em mandatos for feita de forma directa e não através do método de Hondt? E se os brancos e nulos, votos de protesto por natureza, forem representados na mesma percentagem por lugares vazios no parlamento?

Como teriam ficado os tais 134 lugares de 2011 atribuídos mediante participação popular? Assim:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes Mandatos
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65% 52
PS 1568168 28,06% 37
CDS-PP 653987 11,70% 16
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91% 11
BE 288973 5,17% 7
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12% 1
PAN 57849 1,04% 1
MPT 22690 0,41% 1
MEP 21936 0,39% 1
PNR 17742 0,32% 0
PTP 16811 0,30% 0
PPM 15081 0,27% 0
PND 11776 0,21% 0
PPV 8205 0,15% 0
POUS 4604 0,08% 0
PDA 4532 0,08% 0
P.H. 3590 0,06% 0
Brancos 148378 2,66% 4
Nulos 79995 1,43% 2
Total de Mandatos 134

E o que podemos retirar daqui?

  • A coligação entre PSD e CDS-PP continua maioritária com os seus 68 mandatos para os 134 lugares, não se desvirtuando em nada a vontade popular de 2011 de ter a direita em maioria no parlamento.
  • Quatro novos partidos teriam um representante no parlamento. Quatro novas vozes, quatro novas opiniões com maior visibilidade.
  • Maior abertura e incentivo do sistema democrático à representação da vontade popular legitimada pelo voto em partidos de menor expressão mas ainda assim suficiente para ser ouvida.
  • Representação da abstenção, votos brancos e votos nulos com efeitos práticos.

Seria também interessante perceber que o sistema só seria legítimo se 50% dos eleitores inscritos fosse efectivamente depositar o voto na urna. Uma percentagem inferior representa uma descrença no sistema representativo actual e deverá ser suficiente para que o mesmo seja analisado e ajustado de forma a que o povo sinta que um voto é um elemento útil na construção democrática do seu país.


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