Antes das 19 horas e das primeiras sondagens à boca da urna, aqui ficam algumas das minhas razões para ser opositor ao actual esquema representativo parlamentar, ao método de eleição via círculos eleitorais e conversão de votos em mandatos via método de Hondt.

Primeiro ponto, curto e grosso: num país não regionalizado não faz qualquer sentido a existência de círculos eleitorais. Não se vota pela lista do partido para o nosso círculo, vota-se no partido e no seu programa eleitoral nacional.

Por consequência, o método de Hondt, embora válido no sentido de facilitar o cálculo dos “restos” que o método da Quota de Hare introduz e que D’Hondt resolve integrando método divisor, não promove real representatividade num círculo nacional único e remove mandatos a partidos de menor dimensão que obtiveram votos suficientes para serem representados no parlamento. Este é, ainda assim, o ponto em que assumo maior flexibilidade na minha discordância pelo simples facto de que todos os métodos possíveis são também passíveis de críticas válidas quanto à real representatividade que apresentam.

Por fim, a maior das minhas insistências: a abstenção tem que ter impacto no parlamento. Ignorar o fenómeno crescente da abstenção é ignorar a descrença dos povos na democracia representativa.

Peguei nos números de 2011, números globais retirados de fonte governamental, aqui.

Estavam inscritos 9624133 eleitores. Votaram 5588594, ou seja, 58,07%.
Há 230 mandatos/lugares no parlamento.
As coisas ficaram organizadas da seguinte forma:

Partido Votantes Mandatos % no parlamento
PPD/PSD 2159742 108 46,96%
PS 1568168 74 32,17%
CDS-PP 653987 24 10,43%
PCP-PEV 441852 16 6,96%
BE 288973 8 3,48%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 0 0,00%
PAN 57849 0 0,00%
MPT 22690 0 0,00%
MEP 21936 0 0,00%
PNR 17742 0 0,00%
PTP 16811 0 0,00%
PPM 15081 0 0,00%
PND 11776 0 0,00%
PPV 8205 0 0,00%
POUS 4604 0 0,00%
PDA 4532 0 0,00%
P.H. 3590 0 0,00%
Brancos 148378 0 0,00%
Nulos 79995 0 0,00%
Total de Mandatos 230

Atentem na percentagem de deputados no parlamento que cada partido obteve.

Agora atentem na discrepância relativa à real percentagem de votos que cada partido obteve tendo em conta o total de votos depositados em urna:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65%
PS 1568168 28,06%
CDS-PP 653987 11,70%
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91%
BE 288973 5,17%
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12%
PAN 57849 1,04%
MPT 22690 0,41%
MEP 21936 0,39%
PNR 17742 0,32%
PTP 16811 0,30%
PPM 15081 0,27%
PND 11776 0,21%
PPV 8205 0,15%
POUS 4604 0,08%
PDA 4532 0,08%
P.H. 3590 0,06%
Brancos 148378 2,66%
Nulos 79995 1,43%

 

O cálculo é básico e permite que se observe de forma simples a potenciação da representação dos partidos com maior incidência de votos em detrimento dos partidos que obtiveram um resultado global que lhes deveria permitir uma voz, ainda que mínima, no parlamento.

E se abstenção tiver efeitos directos no número de mandatos atribuídos? Porque não? Porque não usar a abstenção como arma efectiva contra o sistema político vigente? Porque não uma regra simples de atribuição de lugares parlamentares de acordo com o número real de votantes? Vamos usar 2011 como exemplo.

230 mandatos para 9624133 eleitores? Só 58,07% dos eleitores participaram na votação? Isso representa 134 mandatos. Regra de 3 simples.

Obviamente que isto implica uma limpeza coerente e recorrente dos cadernos eleitorais, mas não é isso que qualquer sistema democrático deveria garantir de qualquer forma?

Então e se acabarmos com os círculos eleitorais e se for a votos uma lista nacional, única, encabeçada pelo candidato a primeiro ministro? E se a conversão de votos em mandatos for feita de forma directa e não através do método de Hondt? E se os brancos e nulos, votos de protesto por natureza, forem representados na mesma percentagem por lugares vazios no parlamento?

Como teriam ficado os tais 134 lugares de 2011 atribuídos mediante participação popular? Assim:

Partido Votantes Percentagem dos Votantes Mandatos
PPD/PSD 2159742 38,65% 52
PS 1568168 28,06% 37
CDS-PP 653987 11,70% 16
PCP-PEV 441852 7,91% 11
BE 288973 5,17% 7
PCTP-MRPP 62683 1,12% 1
PAN 57849 1,04% 1
MPT 22690 0,41% 1
MEP 21936 0,39% 1
PNR 17742 0,32% 0
PTP 16811 0,30% 0
PPM 15081 0,27% 0
PND 11776 0,21% 0
PPV 8205 0,15% 0
POUS 4604 0,08% 0
PDA 4532 0,08% 0
P.H. 3590 0,06% 0
Brancos 148378 2,66% 4
Nulos 79995 1,43% 2
Total de Mandatos 134

E o que podemos retirar daqui?

  • A coligação entre PSD e CDS-PP continua maioritária com os seus 68 mandatos para os 134 lugares, não se desvirtuando em nada a vontade popular de 2011 de ter a direita em maioria no parlamento.
  • Quatro novos partidos teriam um representante no parlamento. Quatro novas vozes, quatro novas opiniões com maior visibilidade.
  • Maior abertura e incentivo do sistema democrático à representação da vontade popular legitimada pelo voto em partidos de menor expressão mas ainda assim suficiente para ser ouvida.
  • Representação da abstenção, votos brancos e votos nulos com efeitos práticos.

Seria também interessante perceber que o sistema só seria legítimo se 50% dos eleitores inscritos fosse efectivamente depositar o voto na urna. Uma percentagem inferior representa uma descrença no sistema representativo actual e deverá ser suficiente para que o mesmo seja analisado e ajustado de forma a que o povo sinta que um voto é um elemento útil na construção democrática do seu país.


Comments ( 281 )

  1. Replybuy 10 mg levitra
    Hello everybody, I be familiar with YouTube video carries fewer bytes of memory due to that its quality is bad, but this YouTube video has wonderful picture quality.
  2. Replycheap levitra generic
    Quality content is the secret to be a focus for the viewers to visit the web site, that’s what this web site is providing.
  3. Replyvardenafil prices
    Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing the other person’s web site link on your page at proper place and other person will also do same in support of you.
  4. Replybuy levitra 10mg
    There are also so many video uploading blogs, and these as well give facility for sharing their video tutorials, except I think YouTube is the finest.
  5. Replybuy levitra 20mg
    If you are going for most excellent contents like I do, just pay a quick visit this website daily since it presents quality contents, thanks
  6. Replybuy generic levitra
    This paragraph is related to web programming is really good in support of me as I am website programmer. Thanks for sharing keep it up.
  7. Replylevitra 20 mg
    There are also so many video uploading web sites, and these also offer facility for distribution their video tutorials, but I think YouTube is the most excellent.
  8. Replybuy levitra 20mg
    Hello buddy, what a quality is! For this YouTube video, I am in fact pleassant, since I have never seen nice quality YouTube video before,
  9. Replyprezzo levitra 10 mg
    Paragraph writing is also a fun, if you be acquainted with afterward you can write otherwise it is complex to write.
  10. Replylevitra 10mg prezzo
    Wow, what a quality it is! Because mostly YouTube video clips have no pleasant quality, however this is actually a nice quality video.
  11. Replylevitra coupon
    It’s really very complicated in this full of activity life to listen news on TV, therefore I simply use internet for that reason, and take the hottest news.
  12. Replycheap vardenafil online
    If you desire to grow your knowledge simply keep visiting this site and be updated with the hottest news posted here.
  13. Replyprezzo levitra 20mg
    Asking questions are in fact pleasant thing if you are not understanding something totally, except this post provides fastidious understanding yet.
  14. Replycheap levitra 20mg
    This is my first time pay a quick visit at here and i am genuinely pleassant to read all at one place.
  15. Replycoupon levitra
    Hello Dear, are you really visiting this web site on a regular basis, if so after that you will absolutely take good experience.
  16. Replycheap vardenafil online
    I also like Flash, but I am not a good designer to design a Flash, however I have software program by witch a Flash is automatically produced and no more to work.
  17. Replybuy levitra 20 mg
    Hi, thanks for all the users, I will add many more video clips in upcoming days, admin
  18. Replybuy levitra 20 mg
    If some one wants to be updated with hottest technologies after that he must be go to see this web site and be up to date everyday.
  19. Reply20 mg levitra
    Some users are keen to watch funny videos, however I like to watch terrible movies on YouTube.
  20. Replycheap levitra 20 mg
    I am eager of learning Flash, is there any paragraph related to Flash, if okay, then please post it, thanks.
  21. Replycheap levitra 20 mg
    This piece of writing will help the internet people for creating new blog or even a weblog from start to end.
  22. Replycheap generic levitra
    What a lovely story! The tale in this YouTube video that is posted at this time is in fact a nice one with having nice picture quality.
  23. Replylevitra 10 mg prezzo
    Fine way of describing, and good post to take data about my presentation subject matter, which i am going to deliver in university.
  24. Replylevitra buy
    Please upload more video lessons related to cooking if you have, as I want to learn more and more about all recipes of cooking.
  25. Reply10 mg levitra
    Hello to every one, the contents present at this web site are actually amazing for people experience, well, keep up the nice work fellows.
  26. Replybuy levitra 10mg
    Hello friends, you are sharing your view about weblog Search engine optimization, I am also new user of web, so I am also getting more from it. Thanks to all.
  27. Replyonline medications
    Australia for sale http://online-medications.men/ for sale cheap.
  28. Replybuy levitra 20 mg
    Can you please send by e-mail me the code for this script or please enlighten me in detail in relation to this script?
  29. Replylevitra 10 mg
    Hi there, I read your blog daily. Your story-telling style is witty, keep up the good work!
  30. Replybuy 10mg levitra
    There is also one other technique to increase traffic for your web site that is link exchange, thus you as well try it
  31. Replyonline medications
    generic online overnight shipping http://online-medications.men over the counter south africa.
  32. Replyvardenafil online
    In my house when I take bored, afterward I simply ON my laptop and open YouTube web site to watch the YouTube movies.
  33. Replybuy levitra 10 mg
    Its extremely brilliant YouTube video in terms of quality, truly fastidious, its quality is actually appreciable.
  34. Replylevitra
    No matter if some one searches for his necessary thing, thus he/she wishes to be available that in detail, thus that thing is maintained over here.
  35. Replylevitra 20mg bayer prezzo
    Really movie is the presentation of some one’s feelings; it presents the lesson to the viewers.
  36. Replyvardenafil
    Wow! this cartoon type YouTube video I have viewed when I was in primary level and now I am in institution of higher education and viewing that once more at this time.
  37. Replylevitra 10mg prezzo
    When someone writes an post he/she retains the image of a user in his/her mind that how a user can understand it. Thus that’s why this piece of writing is outstdanding. Thanks!
  38. Replycheap 10 mg levitra
    Fastidious response in return of this query with real arguments and explaining all about that.
  39. Replyprezzo levitra 20mg
    What's up, it is understandable post along with this YouTube video; I can’t believe that one can not understand this straightforward post having with video demonstration.
  40. Replycheap generic levitra
    What a lovely story! The tale in this YouTube video that is posted at this place is actually a nice one with having nice picture feature.
  41. Replycheap 10 mg levitra
    It’s very simple to find out any topic on net as compared to books, as I fount this piece of writing at this web page.
  42. Replygeneric levitra
    These are actually enormous ideas in about blogging. You have touched some pleasant things here. Any way keep up wrinting.
  43. Replyvardenafil prices
    Hi, everything is going fine here and ofcourse every one is sharing information, that’s really fine, keep up writing.
  44. Replybuy levitra 20mg
    This is my first time pay a visit at here and i am genuinely pleassant to read all at one place.
  45. Replybuy generic levitra
    Quality articles is the main to interest the viewers to go to see the web page, that’s what this site is providing.
  46. Replypoe currency
    youre really talented.
  47. Replylevitra online
    Hurrah! In the end I got a webpage from where I be able to really obtain helpful information concerning my study and knowledge.
  48. Replylevitra generic
    Excellent, what a webpage it is! This weblog provides helpful data to us, keep it up.
  49. Replylevitra rezeptfrei deutschland
    Piece of writing writing is also a excitement, if you know then you can write if not it is complicated to write.
  50. Replygeneric levitra
    At this moment I am going away to do my breakfast, after having my breakfast coming again to read further news.